Israel eta NATO zale estatu guztiak Palestinaren aurka (26) eta Scott Ritter

0:23

Hello friends and family brothers and sisters it says that we are live we have the pleasure and the honor of having

0:29

Scott Ritter back with us on real true talk one and we also have a a visitor

0:35

Janet Cobrin go ahead Janet you can ask the

0:40

first couple questions okay thank you so I wake up every morning fearful

0:48

of horrible world event happened while I slept

0:53

and Juan thank you so much for inviting me to join you this morning Scott I’m so

1:00

pleased to be able to ask you some questions I almost got to meet you in

1:05

person back in March 2023 when I and some other like-minded people organized

1:11

an East Bay tour for you that didn’t work out but I hope one day to meet you

1:16

in person somewhere so let me start my uh

1:22

questions uh first question and actually I was just

1:28

watching Putin’s presser from Russia from the bricks conference just now live

1:36

um it’s my understanding that bricks currently has nine member states Brazil

1:42

Russia India China South Africa Egypt Ethiopia Iran and U Saudi Arabia was

1:50

invited but has yet to something had 22 additional countries

1:56

that applied for membership the 202 for bricks Summit in Kazan Russia just ended

2:04

yesterday yester um we do talk about a

2:09

big question about this that Summit by giving us some highlights or a summary

2:15

of what happened what its accomplishments and failures were what decisions were made like new States and

2:25

and how you think this Summit will significantly impact the world geographically economically and

2:32

militarily Beyond its number States I will before I go on though um I

2:40

can barely hear Janet is there a problem with her microphone or I can try to get closer now I can now

2:47

I can hear you okay that’s good so could you repeat the question just not for me

2:52

but for the audience uh because I if I couldn’t hear it I think they probably couldn’t hear it okay um one

3:00

second so it’s my understanding is that better yes that that bricks currently

3:07

has nine member states Brazil Russia India China South Africa Egypt Ethiopia

3:14

Iran and U Saudi Arabia was invited but has yet

3:19

to commit and something like 22 additional countries have applied for

3:25

membership the 2024 bricks Summit in Kazan Russia just ended

3:32

yesterday would you talk about this that Summit by giving us some highlights or a

3:38

sum a summary of what happened what its accomplishments and

3:43

failures were what decisions were made like were any new states admitted and

3:50

how you think this Summit will significantly impact the world geographically economically and

3:56

militarily Beyond its member states okay well I mean that’s a that’s a good

4:02

question and it’s a relevant question um you know there’s we have a problem here in the

4:09

west when we uh talk about bricks because we um we’re focusing on the wrong things um the Give an example the

4:17

the number one story uh in the west out of bricks was uh oh dear we haven’t isolated Putin as much as we had hope to

4:24

you know that the world has come to to to Kazan and um you know Putin is receiving International leaders and this

4:31

is Terri as if brics is about Russia Putin and the West’s uh you know hang up

4:38

over um over over isolation that’s not what bricks is about um the other thing that we focus on is dollarization that

4:45

we take that personally Donald Trump especially takes it personally um you know and and even the the Biden

4:52

Administration they’re like you know we we we can’t support this this isn’t brics isn’t about D dollar ization

5:00

either I mean um the concept of dollarization as Putin said he said that

5:07

it it’s you it’s not Russia that stopped using the dollar it’s you who stopped

5:14

allowing Russia to use the dollar um and that’s how the world feels it’s it’s not

5:19

that the world is saying we reject the dollar in fact I I’m fairly certain that

5:25

if the United States reversed course right now with some there’s just two very drama things United States could do

5:31

right now that wouldn’t change um you know Global geopolitics but would um

5:37

perhaps be fatal to um the establishment of bricks currency and one would be to

5:43

immediately release um Russia’s Sovereign wealth fund that was seized by

5:49

um by United States and other nations after the Russian initiation of the special military operation back in

5:56

February several hundred billion dollars worth of uh Russian assets were seized

6:01

these were assets that were in banks around the world why because the dollar is the uh you know the the international

6:08

Reserve currency and Russia is a player on the international stage and so it has dollars about to help facilitate trade

6:15

we sees that uh and in doing so we we basically said that um you know we can’t

6:22

the dollar can’t you can’t trust the dollar anymore because the United States can seize it anytime they want uh

6:27

regardless of international law Etc and two is sanctions we need to lift all of our ridiculous sanctions against

6:34

countries because Marco Rubio the senator from Florida I think explained it best wants one of the most honest

6:41

things a uh Senator has said when he talked about the Brazil um seeking to

6:47

make payments to to China using um not the dollar he said we can’t

6:53

allow them to do that if they start uh making payments in other currencies we can’t sanction them

7:01

oh well good Lord I mean Marco if you realize that you can’t sanction them do you think maybe they woke up and said

7:06

how do we prevent the United States from sanctioning us not using the dollar so dollarization is purely an American

7:12

driven phenomena it’s the world reacting to irresponsible policies but even this

7:17

wasn’t the primary um you know play that was taking place um you know we we we we

7:25

talk about you know the expansion of bricks and that’s the other thing people were looking at uh and the fact that

7:31

bricks didn’t bring in any new members there’s a new category of membership um

7:36

uh but it it’s it’s one level below full membership and they didn’t bring in any full members and people are saying well

7:42

that’s a failure it’s not a failure um it it brics what brics did this year the

7:48

most important thing brics did this year was create was to

7:53

institutionalize a consensus driven um multi-polar

8:00

um multilateral uh Forum uh for solving the

8:05

world’s economic social and political problems uh again because we live in the

8:12

United States or we live in the west um our familiarity with history is non-existent uh if I were to mention

8:19

1955 in the Bandung conference to most Americans they would go I don’t know

8:25

what you’re talking about I don’t even know what the significance of that is that’s because we live in America but

8:31

the in 1955 there was a conference in band Indonesia that brought together um

8:37

countries from Africa from the global South we call it Africa West Asia East Asia they came together um and this

8:44

conference the purpose of it was basically to set in motion a vehicle of

8:49

empowerment for um the states that had suffered under colonialism for so long

8:57

um Bandung was the end of colonialism um Jo li who was the Chinese Premier at the

9:04

time said that 20 years after b b there um colonialism will be dead and he was

9:10

absolutely correct it was unfortunately Cold War politics being what they were Bandung wasn’t able to sustain itself um

9:19

and it uh it it dissipated bricks is the modern-day manifestation of band The

9:25

Spirit of bandom um this is bricks is the it’s the global South coming together to

9:33

destroy neocolonialism neocolonialism is basically you know the the relationships

9:40

that the colonial Powers maintained with their former Colonial subjects where even though they didn’t call them

9:46

colonies they continued to treat them as colonies France afri is a prime example of that how France treated um African

9:54

States the the British Commonwealth is a uh is that and America’s whole rules based International order the way that

10:00

we’ve imposed our will on the world uh in the aftermath of the second world war by you know putting in institutions that

10:06

have nothing to do with the rule of law nothing to do with the United Nations and everything to do with American dictate um this is the

10:13

neocolonial U reality and the global South in bricks has driven a a a stake through

10:21

the heart of this vampire um and that’s what happened here this is a huge event it is a uh Earth shattering event

10:29

one of these trans transformative moments in global history that uh will resonate for decades to come and most

10:36

Americans are like we we don’t understand that’s right you don’t understand something big just happened

10:42

and the world came together and said we’re done with you you being US America

10:49

you don’t get to call the shots anymore you’re not the shot caller you might think you are I mean we have American

10:54

Media and we see Biden getting up making speeches we see blinkin making speeches the Secretary of State we see Jake

11:00

Sullivan making speeches KLA Harris make speeches Donald Trump talks about magic phone calls he’s going to make I mean we

11:07

we got this all America America the essential Nation America the the the the

11:12

nation the world can’t live without Kazan just said no we’re we’re

11:18

done with that that model’s finished um we are now talking about consensus

11:23

driven multilateral uh Global Community um and

11:28

you know with this new expanded membership uh 57% of the world’s population now is part of brics either

11:35

as a member state or as one of their new expanded uh partner plus um status 57%

11:42

of the world’s population um from a GDP standpoint uh they we far bricks far

11:48

strip out strips um anything the United States has in terms of the G7 or any any

11:54

competitor um we’re we’re outclassed um we we’ve become irrelevant overnight

11:59

and uh we don’t realize it that that’s the amazing thing um when you look at American News it’s as if you know bricks

12:07

was this cute little Club thing that happened somewhere over in Russia that we’re not even sure where it’s an exotic

12:13

sound sounding place but uh it happened and um people came and they left and

12:20

we’re done the world changed overnight it’s a whole new world today uh what Russia did this this year was something

12:27

that’s phenomenal um you know bricks starting in

12:32

2022 um because of the way the West reacted

12:38

to Russia’s military incursion into Ukraine seeking to isolate Russia Etc um

12:44

if if you recall before the Russian military incursion in February of

12:50

2022 flew to um let me silence uh got my

12:55

notifications on here normally I turn off my email there now we won’t get the irritating notification um Putin flew to

13:04

Beijing in on February 4th of 2022 and he met with Jen ping the Chinese leader

13:10

um and they issued a 5,000 plus word joint statement again the West largely

13:17

ignored it um because we were solely focused on how Biden is gonna you know

13:22

stick it in the eye of jayen ping by not going to the uh to the to the Winter Olympics we’re going to show those

13:28

Chinese who’s the boss well Putin and B and and and JJ ping met and this 5,000

13:34

plus word statement was a declaration of war we didn’t realize it because apparently not too many people read it

13:40

but it said that the rules-based international order is finished it’s done we reject it and we’re going to

13:46

replace it with a law-based international order that’s consensus driven um based upon the law as the law

13:52

is defined by the United Nations Charter and things of that nature the vehicle

13:57

that this that was going to do this though they weren’t quite sure they they spoke of bricks but they also spoke of

14:02

the G20 and they spoke of the Shanghai cooperation organization which if you know people should probably Google that

14:08

and find out what it is because it’s a big deal it’s a very the Shanghai cooperation organization is a very big

14:14

deal it’s about EUR Asian Unity um but again we in the west tend to ignore it

14:20

because we’re focused on the European Union and on NATO and on the G7 and this little European American uh Centric

14:28

universe that we’ve created for ourselves but there’s a whole another world out there and um the the Chinese

14:34

so the Chinese had the um had the bricks Summit at that point in time and what the Chinese did is they said okay we’re

14:41

going to make bricks we’re going to push to make bricks more relevant and one of the things that they uh decided to do is

14:47

that they would open it up for um for expansion not not then but to

14:54

begin the preparation of opening up for expansion in 2023 South Africa had the chairman ship and uh in South Africa

15:01

they expanded bricks um they invited I think Six Nations um you named them

15:07

Saudi Arabia was invit Argentina was also invited Argentina backed out Saudi Arabia hasn’t quite figured out what

15:13

they want to do uh but the others are now full-time members um but when you when you expand

15:20

something like this you know you’ve created now a mess to be honest because

15:25

what you had was this club of five five nations that sort of got together and had casual meetings and now you’ve

15:31

expanded it and it and it’s chaotic how you know how do you have consensus-driven

15:37

multilateral discussions without structure Russia’s job this year was to

15:44

bring structure to Bricks was to institutionalize methodologies for um

15:51

this this consensus building they had over 200 meetings leading up to Bricks

15:56

when Russia took over the chairmanship in the on January 1st over 200 meetings

16:02

leading up to the Kazan Summit meetings that you know had you minor minor

16:08

meetings big meetings bringing in the foreign policy guys bringing in the economic guys um and it’s not just

16:14

meetings of the the principles but they brought in everybody they they they said everybody’s welcome Come on talk let’s

16:21

let’s have this out so by the time Kazan came around look how smoothly they issued the joint statement of of Kazan

16:28

they didn’t have to sit there and look look what happens when the G20 gets together they can’t issue a a joint statement there’s all this infighting

16:34

and all this stuff there was no infighting in Kazan why 200 meetings Preparatory work coming up they knew

16:41

exactly what to come they came to Kazan they they signed off their documents

16:46

there is now institutions and when this is handed over to the next chairmanship which I think is Brazil has it next year

16:54

um Brazil doesn’t have to reinvent the wheel there are now methodologies for bringing together these ministerials um

17:01

and brics is now becoming an institution that can hash out complicated Global

17:07

issues uh and a consensus-driven multilateral forum um this means that

17:13

the United States can’t just assume that there is chaos in the global South that can be exploited by America which is

17:20

what we do best divide and conquer we go in and you know stir trouble up and split people apart but the global South

17:26

is now unified in an institution that says you know we matter we matter more

17:31

than than the United States uh we matter more than the than Europe than NATO we

17:37

we have our own voice we don’t have to yield to them anymore um and this is the

17:43

you know there’s that RM it’s the end of the world as we know it um and that and it’s absolutely true it’s the end of the

17:49

world as we know this is uh an event that will be studied for years and but

17:55

in America you know we’re we’re we still think Brett and woods

18:01

is the Bret and woods uh meeting back in 1944 1945 that established the dollar is

18:07

the world’s you know the reserve currency and all that we still think Breton Woods is relevant Breton Woods was just relegated to the trash heap of

18:15

History Kazan Kazan will go down in history is one of the most important meetings of of all time it’s the modern

18:22

day bandong and again if you if you’re an American you don’t know what I’m talking about just take time to um to

18:28

Google it and uh and do your research uh what happened in Kazan uh is bigger than

18:34

what happened in bandou and bandou um was the end of col of the colonial World

18:40

um Kazan is the end of the neocolonial world and whether Americans want to Adit or not we’re the biggest neoc

18:45

colonialists out there thank you so um on to my next

18:53

question someone I know who is an American who thinks highly of your work

18:59

by the way has friends who are anti- and pro-russia more or

19:06

less they have been discussing Russia Ukraine NATO Israel Iran

19:12

Etc my friend is frustrated because they take positions he does not know how to

19:18

respond to I’m going to give five examples

19:25

um he’s interested in your response and comments uh uh to each one of these um I

19:33

don’t know should I give them all at once or one y yep go I’ll write them down as you as you give it

19:39

okay even if Russia was provoked by NATO did they really have to invade

19:47

Ukraine why did they invade on February 24th weren’t there other options than an

19:55

invasion okay the next one what is the evidence that Russia did not intend to

20:02

conquer Ukraine in the early stages of the war okay next one if the Russian

20:10

military Advantage is so great why did they not defeat Ukraine

20:17

quickly okay and then some some tell him that from the very beginning up to today

20:26

you have been overly optimistic about Russia’s progress in the war and in

20:31

discussing your October 20th Consortium news article Iran’s bomb is real and

20:38

it’s here they have claimed that you are not a trustworthy source for the Iran

20:45

assessment because you have quote consistently gotten the Ukraine war

20:51

wrong and quote in other words you have o overestimated Russia and underated

20:57

under under underestimated Ukraine and then

21:03

finally once the donbas Falls what will the Russians likely

21:12

do okay um start with the first um did Russia

21:18

have to in to initiate the special military operation because I’m not going to call it an invasion um the words have

21:25

meaning and um the special military operation is a specific meaning um I and

21:30

others didn’t pick up on this early on um you know I’m somebody who believed that if Russia was going to go move into

21:37

Ukraine militarily that they would do so as an invasion um is

21:43

war ju knows when Marines move in uh I’m

21:49

sorry for the people in front of us um we’re going to kill you and that’s what we’re going to do we’re going to close with and destroy you through Firepower

21:54

maneuver and I believe that’s what the Russians were going to do with the ukrainians come in and just slaughter them uh wipe them out push them back and

22:01

move on because that’s generally when you make the decision to use military force that’s

22:07

um that’s the consequences of that um but Russia didn’t invade Russia went

22:15

in with something that was Far different now now that’ll get to the uh other part but I I just want to say that Russia’s

22:22

goal was never to conquer Ukraine it was never the goal of Russia to conquer Ukraine what other option did Russia

22:29

have I don’t know tell me uh I’m I’m curious about anybody who asks this question because I don’t want to be

22:34

insulting to them but it just shows about as much ignorance about the situation as could possibly exist are

22:41

you familiar with Minsk the Minsk Accords are you familiar with Minsk one

22:46

and Minsk 2 the complicated uh interaction do you know how Minsk came about I’d like to ask people that right

22:52

off the bat you do know that in February 2014 the CIA orchestrated a coup

22:59

that overthrew the constitutionally elected leader of Ukraine Victor yanukovich replaced him

23:05

with handpicked Stooges of the United States

23:10

remember Victoria Nan’s intercepted phone call yats is our man um so you

23:15

know do you want to pretend that didn’t happen you want to pretend it didn’t happen do you want to pretend that the right sector didn’t come in with snipers

23:22

and kill their own people to blame it on the Ukrainian government even the Ukrainian government today admits it

23:27

they did an investigation say yeah it was our guys that did it uh this was a total setup by the CIA by the state

23:33

department to overthrow the government if you do we’re done talking if you can’t admit that because that just tells

23:39

me you’re so removed from reality it’s not even fun after that point the new Ukrainian nationalist government that

23:45

came in went to war against the Russian people literally um they tried to make a move on Crimea but the majority Russian

23:52

population there said no we’re not playing that game Russia intervened and Annex it you can have questions about

23:58

that you can say that’s not the right way to do business um I would say that anytime people who have ideological

24:05

affiliations with Adolf Hitler’s thirdd Reich uh who believe in racial Supremacy who view the Russians as their their

24:12

inferiors are making a move on a Russian dominated area to depopulate it so that

24:17

it can become part of Ukraine that maybe the population there has a right to stand up and maybe the Russian government has a right to intervene and

24:22

protect them but we can have that debate um Ukraine Ukraine war against its own

24:30

people it’s in the Ukrainian Russians 100% indans in Russia no the well the

24:38

they went to war against Russian speak the the Russians speaking UK Ukraine or

24:44

the yeah Russian ukrainians sorry study study what the Ukrainian government did in Mari Opel in 2014 it’s called the

24:51

rape of Mari opo for a reason um the AAR

24:57

Battalion St how that was created how the the rightwing people from kov

25:02

primarily kov soccer club uh came down and installed themselves in Mari opal um

25:08

and then proceeded to terrorize the Russian speaking population there uh to depopulate it to and so how how as the

25:16

Russian people rose up to oppose this they were called terrorists and that the Ukrainian government instituted What’s

25:22

called the anti-terrorist operation atto um and started shelling uh the the the

25:27

the Russian speaking population their own people killing them um I mean this

25:32

is this is the reality so what what happened is the Ukrainian as the Russians rose up the the Russian

25:39

government um did provide assistance uh they they did it covertly initially um if you want to look at the beginning of

25:45

what’s called Vagner Vagner was a private military corporation uh created in May

25:53

2014 um to provide

25:58

military training and military equipment uh training on equipment to these these

26:03

these new military formations that were they were being formed in the dobas were they they invited in or of course they

26:11

were the Russians the r the Russians of the dbass wanted to become part of

26:16

Russia they wanted Russia to come in and take them and Russia said no we can’t do that you’re Ukraine that’s the other thing Russia

26:23

said no you’re Ukraine they said well what about Crimea they said well Crimea was never really Ukraine uh that’s a

26:28

different thing there’s a whole legal status of sasto the city of sasap and Etc but the dbass was Ukraine um and the

26:35

Russians said we’re going to fight for your rights but we’re not going to allow you to we’re not going to support the

26:42

separation but they they fought um the Ukrainian Army was in there and the

26:48

Russians in late 2014 early 2015 surrounded the Ukrainian Army in ad

26:54

dbass city city they were going to kill them all that would been the end of the Ukrainian Army They’re All Dead um and I

27:02

have to tell you as somebody who was a military guy I would have just finished a job killed them all would have been a

27:08

lot easier but uh no Putin you see he’s a humanitarian uh the ukrainians

27:14

panicked picked up the phone and called the French and the Germans said we’re about to lose our entire Army um and

27:20

that’s it and so Fran Holland who was the president of of France at the time

27:26

and Angela Merkel the chancellor called Putin and begged can you can you find a

27:31

way to not do this can we just can we can we come up with a a peaceful way to

27:36

resolve this issue and Putin said yes he let the Ukrainian Army go later on he

27:43

said a huge mistake should have killed them all but he said I believe the French and the Germans that they were seriously looking for a peaceful

27:50

solution this led to the men Accords the Minsk Accords was basically the ukrainians were going to make

27:57

constitutional Chang es that protected the that secured the rights of the Russian speaking U and the you the

28:04

Russian culturally Russian ethnic Russian Russian speaking people to protect their religion their language

28:10

their history their culture Etc um in exchange um you know the territories

28:18

that the the Russian separatists were in controlled would be recognized as Ukraine and Ukraine would regain control

28:24

of the borders um there it is and Putin kept saying let’s do it but no

28:32

the the the Ukrainian government never pushed forward on it and uh France and

28:37

Germany never really put pressure on them they just dragged this out year after year curiously at the same time in

28:43

2015 uh the United States and NATO opens up a major training facility in Western Ukraine where we begin the process of

28:51

rebuilding the Ukrainian Army and so from 2015 up until 2022

28:58

we were you know cranking out a battalion of uh Ukrainian forces trained the NATO standards every I think 55 days

29:07

um that adds up to a lot of guys um so while we’re training retraining this

29:13

Ukrainian Army rebuilding it into this NATO type Force nothing’s happening in

29:18

Minsk and the Russians were very frustrated by this when um in in June of

29:25

20 21 Joe Biden met with Vladimir Putin in um

29:31

in Geneva uh for their little their little gett together and um Putin said because at that time you

29:39

know the Russians were moving troops around the border and the Americans were like you can’t move troops around the Border he said why not it’s Russia we can move our troops anywhere in Russia

29:45

we want to uh but they said if you don’t want us to move then you have to stop the ukrainians from redeploying these

29:51

NATO troops that you guys have uh built towards the dbass and threatening the dbass we don’t like that buildup

29:59

um in the meeting uh Putin turned to um Biden and said ‘l this can all go away

30:06

if you just Implement Minsk if you can get them to implement Minsk this all goes away none of this this won’t be a

30:13

problem um Putin I mean Biden promised but we

30:18

didn’t do it and the Russians called that by by October of 20121 the Russians realized they confronted the Germans and

30:24

the French they said you got to implement they said no all right right so now we know Minsk which was created

30:29

in 2014 2015 to save Ukraine nobody was going to implement

30:36

it at that time should Russia gone back to where they were and say okay we’re going to destroy the

30:41

Ukrainian Army but there’s no legal reason they can’t do it there’s no argument there what they did is they uh put out in December 17th of 2021 they

30:48

put out a draft treaties they sent one to the United States one to Nato um this was to um talk about a new European

30:56

security framework um so again the Russians are saying if you don’t want us building up our forces

31:03

on Ukraine then we have to come up with a framework that protects our interests

31:08

we can’t have Ukraine becoming this NATO Outpost um it’s very dangerous You’

31:13

projected this NATO capability deep inside um Russia remember when the Soviet Union existed Ukraine was part of

31:20

the Soviet Union um and so when Russia is building up strategic capabilities Communications Radars Etc they don’t

31:27

view Ukraine as hostile territory so in the heartland of Russia there are certain facilities that are fairly U

31:34

sensitive and and they thought they were protected by time and space but now that Ukraine is no longer part of Russia um

31:41

if you project NATO forces into Ukraine they’re right up to where these Russian sensitive sites are and the Russians are

31:47

like guys this is a problem we can’t have that we can’t have you thrust right in like this we need some guarantees

31:54

neither NATO nor the United States was willing to uh to discuss this draft treaty meanwhile Ukraine continues to

32:01

send forces towards the dombas building up forces um to according you know they

32:08

were saying we you know this is going to be a decisive battle to take control of our of our land because Ukraine had no

32:13

intention of implementing Minsk the Russians started talking to ukrainians saying look if NATO and United States

32:21

doesn’t want to talk to us at least you guys talk to us we can come up with something we can

32:27

come up with a way that to peacefully coexist Etc ukrainians they they they

32:33

even admit it now arestovich and others have talked about they said we kept the Russians going up until the very end

32:38

because we were hoping to drag them down in um in in in in dialogue while we

32:44

built up our forces and then we’d launch a surprise attack and be able to take over the dbass um meanwhile over all

32:51

those years uh between 2014 and 2021 the Ukraine Army was attacking

32:57

attacking the donbas correct yeah I mean the the the heavy fighting was earlier

33:04

there was a relative uh see that’s sort of the irony is starting around 2017 um the fighting slowed down the the

33:11

Ukraine would continue to Shell but the um the military forces on the side of the the net People’s Republic and the

33:18

lagon People’s Republic these two um entities that had declared independence they actually demobilized and so they

33:24

have very few troops and that’s what created a window of vulnerability that the ukrainians were seeking to uh

33:30

exploit by bringing in they brought in between 60 and 120,000 troops right up to the uh to to the frontier of of the

33:38

dbas ready to attack and the Russians saw this and so what the Russians did

33:43

then um is now we we move into

33:50

uh there there were no other options I mean at this point in time if Russia did

33:55

nothing they attack and later on we have missions from or shenko the Ukrainian president who implemented the mensk

34:03

courts haland and Angela Merkel they all three admit they said Minsk was a sham a

34:08

sham uh designed to buy time so we could build up a Ukrainian military that was

34:13

capable of uh recapturing the domas a sham um the only honest actor in this

34:19

entire thing was Russia Russia is the one that’s seeking peace but now Russia

34:25

can’t so how now can Russia explain coming to the defense of the dbass what

34:30

is the legal the other thing people don’t understand is they Putin’s a dictator

34:35

Putin’s an autocrat he just does things he breaks international law the Russians are actually assiduous in how they um

34:45

comply with international law uh there were things that had to happen I mean I I love all the people that criticize me

34:51

that’s okay I’m not I’m I’m not above criticism I’m at it guys but you better know what the hell you’re talking about

34:56

before you come at me on certain things for instance I uh I said in the leadup

35:01

to the Russian military incursion um people you know the US intelligence said the Russians are going to invade

35:07

tomorrow they’re going to invade tomorrow they said Russians aren’t going to invade tomorrow there are many things that have to happen before Russia can

35:12

invade um once they start happening then Russia could invade in a matter of you know of days but there are things that

35:19

have to happen that haven’t happened yet so we can’t be talking about an imminent Invasion um and the things that had to

35:25

happen is that um lugans and donet had to declare

35:31

themselves independent and that Independence had to be recognized by Russia very first step well they did

35:37

they declared they and they had a referendum um the Russians recognize it then Russia the the referendum was we we

35:44

want you to bring us into Russia Russia said no we’re not bringing you in but now that we recognize your

35:51

Independence we will create what’s called a collective security agreement between Russia a United nation state

35:58

lugans and the Nets People’s Republic non-united nation states but independent entities as recognized by Russia it’s a

36:06

collective security agreement now with the Ukrainian forces preparing to attack

36:12

the donbas the Russians said under article 51 of the United Nations Charter

36:17

operating an interpretation that says that self-defense is also preemptive self-defense and this is something that

36:24

the United States and NATO have uh endorsed um so Russia simply took the Playbook us and NATO have used to

36:30

justify their attack on uh for instance uh Serbia in 1999 over Kosovo um Russia

36:36

said preemptive self-defense um we’re going to invoke it and again

36:42

for all the people out there saying that’s just a Russian interpret you you need to study international law I’m not

36:48

saying you need to be an international lawyer but look up um the the the Caroline uh case Caroline president

36:55

Scott what are you talking about I don’t know Supreme Court presedent I think 1848 something like that a US ship

37:01

called the Caroline was sending uh guns into Canada uh to support a a re

37:07

Revolution that was taking place north of the main border and the British Navy intervened and we said they can’t

37:12

intervene that’s an attack on the United States and the British came back and said we had to

37:18

preemptive you we had to preempt you because the threat being posed by the Caroline was such that we had no other

37:24

choice and the Supreme Court found in favor of the British a preemptive self-defense you don’t have

37:30

to wait for someone to hit you if they say they’re going to hit you and they’re preparing there’s no other option you’re allowed to preempt being hit and the

37:36

Russians are saying here come the ukrainians they’re getting ready to come in we’re going to preempt that so that’s

37:43

what happened it totally in Conformity with international law the Russians had no other choice but now we come

37:51

to why didn’t they uh why didn’t they just go in and take the ukrainians out

37:56

why why didn’t they invade because Russia had never had an intention to invade the goal of Russia

38:01

was never territorial acquisition the goal of Russia was stability from the very beginning stability they wanted

38:08

stability um the key aspect of the stability was they wanted um Ukraine not

38:13

to be a NATO member and they needed Ukraine to you know commit to that

38:19

um they also recognize the danger of uh this this right-wing ideology that is

38:26

prevalent Ukraine um it’s linked to you know step on Bandera who is this uh

38:35

Western Ukrainian actually he’s polish he wasn’t Ukrainian and how do we know that well because when the prior

38:42

Ukrainian government gave him a hero of Ukraine status um it it was eventually revoked because

38:50

you can only give hero Ukraine to a Ukrainian Citizen and stepan Bandera was a Polish citizen never was a Ukrainian

38:56

citizen um but doesn’t matter uh he this is a man who created something called

39:02

the organization of Ukrainian nationalists uh they worked with the Nazis in World War II they were

39:08

responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands of Jews hundreds of thousands of Poes hundreds of thousands of Russians they’re very murderous people

39:15

um and this ideology exists in Ukraine it’s a problem so the Russians call that densification they need to um deal with

39:24

this this Bist uh thing but demilitarization is a Russian goal that

39:30

is getting rid of NATO capability out of Ukraine densification getting rid of Bandera um but the Russian goal wasn’t

39:38

to conquer Ukraine and impose this people say what what did Russia want by

39:44

going into Ukraine they wanted to get Ukraine to the negotiating table the whole purpose of the Russian initial

39:50

Russian action was to get Ukraine to the negotiating table that’s what the special military operation was about I

39:56

got it wrong I admit it I I I saw special military operation I just was like I don’t know meaningless

40:03

words I I I said uh if the if the Russians came in with their full capability that they should be able to

40:10

defeat the Ukrainian Army peace meal and this war will be over in a week I wasn’t

40:15

alone in this um the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff briefed the United States Congress the same way because any

40:21

military man knows that if the Russians applied their full military Doctrine with their full military capability against Ukrainian

40:29

military they would have annihilated them and the war would have been over in a week the director of the CIA briefed

40:34

the president United States the same the same thing so for all the people that criticize me for that I’m I’m open to it

40:41

I admit I was wrong I was wrong because I like all others thought Russia was

40:46

going to actually invade they didn’t they initiated a special military operation the goal of special military

40:53

operation was put the ukrainians in a untenable situation

40:58

um and compel them to come to the negotiating Table 6 days after Russia initiated the special military operation

41:04

Ukraine attended the first negotiating SE session in G belus that’s called success ladies and

41:10

gentlemen I just want to tell you that if your goal is to get the ukrainians to come to a negotiating table that the ukrainians said we’re not going to come

41:16

to but they show up means you’re doing something right and there were four more sessions at go and then they went to U

41:24

turkey I think they they they they spoke um in Seaside Resort then they went up to

41:31

Istanbul uh and by the end of March um they had they hammered out what’s called

41:37

the Istanbul communic it’s a peace treaty it’s a peace agreement signed off on by everybody ukrainians signed off on

41:43

it the Russians signed off on it they were going to go back they’re going to make this thing final

41:50

um the the Ukrainian negotiator has come out and said we’re ready to pop champagne cors that’s how that’s how

41:57

certain we were that the war was over the war is over but the United States Great Britain

42:03

NATO came in and said no we can’t allow this to happen you see the United States has a broader vision of the Strategic

42:09

defeat of Russia in order to strategically defeat Russia we need Russia to be bogged down in this

42:14

conflict in Ukraine um we needed Russia to invade Ukraine get sucked into Ukraine this this horrible you know long

42:21

military operation that wasn’t Russia’s goal Russia’s goal is to come in get this peace treaty and get out and to

42:27

show you the Russians were me were serious about this they told the ukrainians part of the the confidence

42:33

building measures uh as the Russians you know drove in around Kiev and they drove in in other areas in sui and chv um in

42:41

the kov region um the Russians said we’ll we’ll withdraw you know when this is over we’re going to withdraw from all

42:47

Ukrainian territory we are going to as part of the peace deal require the

42:55

that uh the ter Tories of lugans and donet are independent um there will be a

43:01

referendum there held under internation International um

43:06

supervision uh where we will adhere to the principles of the United Nations Charter that um allow for

43:12

self-determination and will’ll let the people of the donbass decide do they want to be independent do they want be

43:18

part of Ukraine what do they want um but they you know the territories of

43:25

Kon and zapia today uh which are now part of Russia because Russia absorbed them and the original is communic those

43:31

were going to be returned to Ukraine along with all the carve territory all the other ter and the Russians withdrew

43:38

from things but the you know NATO came in and said no no no we’re going to spin this differently Russia didn’t withdraw

43:44

as a confidence building measure Russia withdrew because they were defeated that you ukrainians defeated them you pushed

43:51

them back um and we’re going to build upon this to um to you know and then for

43:57

instance they did the uh as the Russians with through there’s a neighborhood in the north of Kiev called bcha um and

44:03

suddenly there’s you know Dead uh dead people in the streets um the evidence is overwhelming that they were killed by

44:09

Ukrainian um special services um who were involved in cleansing operations

44:15

killing collaborators um the people that were killed had Rush white armbands on their um on their arms showing that they

44:22

were identifying as being pro-russian they had Russian uh field ration p with

44:27

them um that’s a death sentence by the way in Ukraine if you’re found with a Russian ration pack you’re a

44:33

collaborator and they shoot you um but they turned bcha they flipped the script on that turned that into a Russian

44:40

Massacre um and then Boris Johnson came in and said you can’t uh you can’t withdraw you know we we’ll you know or

44:47

else you’ll lose all of our support um and the United States began the process of injecting $48 billion do into

44:54

Ukraine now when that happened I said this is a game Cher I said uh you know

45:00

up until then you know I’m learning about the special military operation uh you know I said you know Russia has

45:09

achieved dominance on the battlefield and they’re achieving their political ends but now that Ukraine withdrew the

45:17

injection of $48 billion to rebuild the Ukrainian military is a GameChanger it’s

45:23

going to extend the war now here’s the thing about analysts for again for all those people who CRI me hey guys I’ve

45:28

been doing this for a long time and I will tell you what um the picture that

45:33

you see today is not going to be the picture you see next week um and when you’re called upon to do predictive

45:39

analysis you go with the data that’s available um and I do that I do that as honestly as as possible I will tell you

45:46

that all of my all of my early predictions were predicated upon the available data that Russia was going to

45:52

invade and therefore I predicted a rapid Russian Victory I was wrong Russia didn’t invade I admit it it’s okay it

46:01

doesn’t mean I’m a bad analyst it means that I was using data that I had available then once you reassess it and

46:06

realize it’s a special military operation that the goal was to get Ukraine to the negotiating table then

46:11

you say well no this is a tremendous Russian success it’s a big victory for the Russians now it’s a game changer

46:18

because they’re now they’ve re they’ve redefined it the first thing I said is that well Russia is not going to lose

46:23

this war this is going to complicate things because Russia went in with insufficient resources that’s something

46:30

I said all along I don’t know how you invade a nation as big as Ukraine that has a military as large as Ukraine’s

46:37

with only 200,000 troops normally when you invade um you you want to have a 3 to1 minimum Advantage three attackers

46:44

for one Defender here we have a Ukrainian military of 700 to 900,000 uh available and the Russians

46:50

were coming in with 200,000 um and now Russia was successful in in destroying a large part of the

46:57

Ukrainian military people don’t realize how Bloody the those initial months were for the ukrainians how many losses they

47:03

took that’s why they needed $48 million injection of uh of of of trained you

47:09

know training and and equipment to replace but um the the Russians went

47:14

into what they call phase two they were focused on simply reconquering the Nets

47:19

and lonsk um they they had withdrawn they they had no interest in going back

47:24

they from from their perspective there was going to be turned back over to the ukrainians there’s no reason to

47:30

dig these big uh you know defensive lines they were just going to liberate donkan lugansk

47:38

um$ 48 billion dollar later the ukrainians have a new Army uh and in the

47:43

fall of 2022 they launch a Counterattack and the Counterattack is very successful the Russians were ill-prepared for it um

47:51

no doubt about that and the ukrainians captured the right Bank of keron they pushed the Russians out of car

47:57

back in towards U you know towards lugans Etc and this

48:03

required the Russians to do what I said they had to do all along again it’s complicated guys being a military

48:09

analyst but you know I said they went with insufficient forces they’re going to need like 300 400,000 more

48:16

troops ah amazing the Russians said we’re going to have to mobilize 300,000 troops and then they went into another

48:23

um you know recruitment for volunteers and they got hundreds of thousands of more exactly the level I said they’d need and then they stabilized their

48:30

defensive lines and then they destroyed the Ukrainian Army that’s what people done understand this is a war of

48:36

attrition so by the end of 2022 the Russians had destroyed three

48:41

Ukrainian armies the original one that existed when the when the special military operation

48:46

started um the the the one that was partially

48:52

reconstituted to um well actually two two armies the one that exist Ed than

48:57

the one that was rebuilt with $48 billion they’re destroyed now the ukrainians are building a third military

49:03

remember General um zi giving his uh his his briefing to the um or his briefing

49:10

his interview to The Economist and he said we’re going to do a great counter offensive in the summer of 2023 and we

49:17

need 12 brigades that you have to provide us with the equipment we need this is how many tanks we need how many

49:23

infantry fting Vehicles we need how much artillery artillery we need

49:29

Etc and they got it they built it the offensive was designed by the United

49:34

States and um I said this offensive will never succeed because you’ve you’ve

49:41

telegraphed it the Russians will build their defenses and they did the Russians blunted it the offense and they

49:46

destroyed that military um but now the Russians are in a war of attrition and

49:52

what I’ve been saying all along is that Russia will win this war of attrition um you know it’s very difficult to

50:00

especially if you’re somebody like me who’s very aggressive in terms of military thinking very aggressive and um

50:07

I look at a situation I’m like you know if I were you know I I if I were in

50:13

charge i’ I’d exploit this more I’d punch in further here i’ take this i’ do that Etc um but the Russians they made a

50:22

decision that they’re not going to that they’re they’re not going to suffer needless casualties

50:27

that if the ukrainians want to fight a style of warfare that plays to Russia’s advantages then Russia’s willing to

50:34

fight that Warfare to grind the ukrainians down and that’s what we’ve been involved in

50:41

um you know every time people say well Scott you said the ukrainians were going to collapse well they were I mean it’s

50:47

literally I mean it’s like if you’re have you ever played the what I I forget the name of the but you know the building block game where you take the

50:53

blocks out one at a time and everybody wai and and then finally somebody takes a block out and falls down let’s say I’m

51:00

a structural anal analyst and I’m looking at it I am I wrong when I say

51:06

near the end this the structure is about to collapse if this continues this structure is going to collapse but now

51:12

the game’s modified but it’s halfway through the game as the structure is about to collapse one side gets to come in and put all their blocks back in yeah

51:20

damn okay it’s not going to collapse now but now we have to get back into the to take the blocks out this is about to

51:27

collapse because it is it’s about to collapse but no NATO brings in more blocks and they put the blocks all back

51:32

in guys that’s what’s happened you know for anybody s go Scott’s been inconsistent Scott’s been consistent as

51:38

the day is long but Scott’s a professional military analyst who makes um you know assessments based upon the

51:44

available data if you guys want to go and uh go to September of uh 2022 and

51:52

reconfigure or rethink an assessment I made back in May of 22 um based upon the

51:59

reality of May but now you’re looking at the reality of September that’s your problem not mine the analytical

52:04

deficiency is yours not mine I’m comfortable with what I’ve done but again you everybody is it’s it’s free

52:12

spirit but um so what is the evidence that Russia

52:17

didn’t want to conquer I think the evidence is that Russia didn’t want to conquered Russia gave back territory

52:22

Russia was prepared to give back keron Z zapar they gave back um all the territory around Kev if they

52:28

wanted to conquer they never would have gotten that back um that’s it now Russia was compelled when in the counter

52:35

offensive um I think from the standpoint of the Russian government they beli that the ukrainians uh were acting in bad

52:41

faith um and it proved that the ukrainians uh were seeking to bring harm to um the

52:49

ethnic Russian people of the dbass and so Russia made the decision to incorporate these territories to give

52:55

them the final level of protection which is you are Russian citizens part of the Russian Federation and so they had their

53:01

referendums in there but this was never the original Russian intent so when people look at this and say see Russia

53:07

is seeking to conquer territory if Ukraine had signed off on the istambul communic back in the end of March none

53:14

of that would have happened none of that would have happened it only happened because Ukraine caved in to the pressure

53:20

put on it by the United States and Great Britain um you say I’m overly optimistic

53:26

and I’m not trustworthy I think I answered that um I’m I’m overly accurate um whether you want to you it’s a war of

53:34

attrition ladies and gentlemen and all you have to do is look at the outcome on the battlefield right now okay if you

53:39

think Ukraine’s winning if you think this is what victory looks like and I can’t help you

53:46

um

53:51

and again I mean I think I I think I’ve touched on on on the the main of uh of

53:58

this U it’s ongoing um you know ongoing analysis um you

54:04

know today you know we’re we’re dealing with completely different um you know

54:10

sets of data than we were a year ago today it’s about attacks Storm Shadow

54:15

scalp long range strike systems Etc a year ago we weren’t talking about this kind of stuff we’re talking about

54:21

something different um you know we’re talking about leopard tanks and M1 tanks and how that was going to changed the

54:27

battlefield um you know so it’s it’s just called analysis guys

54:33

uh you do analysis based upon the data that’s in front of you and you try and do your best but um the data changes and

54:40

a good analyst will go back and re-examine the new data and update their their assessments um those of you who

54:47

were critical of me um I would imagine that you’ve never worked in the military intelligence field and therefore you um

54:55

you have some unrealist expectations about um what what to expect um the D buas

55:02

Falls what next that’s that’s the million-dollar question um my dog is trying to um advise me right now on on

55:10

this but uh first of all the Donas is going to

55:15

fall there’s there’s no doubt about that Russia will uh this this cor Russian offensive will recapture all of the

55:22

territory that is legally Russia after the referendum um what happens next is up to

55:29

Ukraine um you know and what Ukraine wants out of this um I don’t know what’s going on why

55:37

they’re barking but can you guys hear me or should I shut them up I me it’s a no you can hear you okay I can hear you all

55:45

right you know one of the interesting things that came out of the Kazan Summit was Putin talking about you know the

55:53

willingness to engage but he said it has to based upon current reality that you can’t you can’t come to the

55:58

table with these artificial expectations of you Ukraine’s going to get this that and the other thing for instance the

56:04

istabul communic was a good good agreement when it was first written but

56:10

Ukraine can’t come now and say we want the EST communic I’m sorry Russia has absorbed

56:17

Kon Z lugans you don’t get them back you don’t get to reinvent that wheel um and

56:24

you’ve done things uh for instance using odess as a platform to strike Crimea and

56:29

strike Southern Russia um using Sumi as a platform to invade K uh using kov as a

56:36

platform to invade belgrad um the Russians from a legitimate National Security

56:42

perspective you we’re gonna have to take into account this so even if they don’t want

56:47

to absorb Odessa carco sui into Russia um there’s a lot of people out there who

56:53

say they should um but I I’ll explain why I don’t think that’s going to happen they’re going to

56:59

have to demilitarize that part of a ceasefire agreement or a peace treaty is that the ukrainians will have to

57:05

withdraw all military forces out of Odessa COV sui uh this will be

57:10

demilitarized because Russia can’t trust the ukrainians to be along the Russian border given what’s happened um so this

57:17

is this is that um the you one of the important things

57:24

about bricks is when they uh I don’t know what’s going on there might

57:30

be a a skunk out in my backyard and the dogs are chasing but

57:36

um I tell you what let me let me just go through this because it’s disrupting me

57:41

so you guys could have a little conversation on your own and

57:48

all good questions Janet thank

57:54

you I know this is your first time so you’re doing good well Scott’s doing most of the

58:02

talking yes on and then while we’re taking this little break uh Janet has

58:08

a blog or newsletter so if you want to be in touch with that just uh email me

58:17

at jrod 307g mail.com and I will give

58:22

her your email and she can put you on her blog right

58:29

yes I resolved the dog issue was it was it a

58:36

skunk it might be um whatever it is isn’t has run away but the dogs are

58:41

along the fence line protecting it protecting their fence line they’re

58:48

protecting the fence line right now so that’s their job um no what I’m saying is you know in Kazan one of the interesting things about Kazan was um

58:56

the unanimity um among the global South that this Ukraine conflict has to come to an end um you know this wasn’t a

59:03

cheerleader section for Russia U saying go Russia do whatever you want almost everybody advised Putin that you you you

59:11

gotta bring this things if bricks is supposed to be about you know global

59:17

stability um and avoiding escalation then Russia needs to

59:23

contribute to that by avoiding escalation um in Ukraine and bringing

59:29

into this conflict so there’s a lot of people out there who say well Russia should you know take Odessa take carve

59:37

and all that there’s no greater notion of escalation than Russia suddenly

59:42

transition that all the arguments out there that that I and others have made that Russia you know didn’t start this

59:48

war looking for territorial acquisition those arguments would be thrown away if Russia suddenly saidwell we’re looking

59:54

for territorial acquisition um and notice that Putin has never made these claims he’s never said uh no we’re

1:00:00

moving on to Odessa we’re moving on here we’re moving on there um and I think there’s a lot of pressure on Putin right

1:00:06

now uh to bring this war to to an end um and and I think Putin’s willing to do so

1:00:14

and he’s willing to even make certain compromis it’s not because they’re losing um far from it but because Russia

1:00:22

as a leader in this new world order needs to set an ex example and that the

1:00:27

Russian example would be of um you know avoiding unnecessary escalation and um

1:00:34

you know bringing in peace and stability so I think the Russians are ready for realistic talks um to bring it into this

1:00:41

conflict um and I I think I I pretty much nailed down what I think the terms

1:00:47

would be um roughly speaking that is what is Russia is Russia um you know

1:00:53

Ukraine will have to concede as part of a treaty in writing backed by its European neighbors that what is Russia

1:01:00

is Russia and there will be no sanctions there no be residual sanctions there won’t be anything Crimea is Russia Kon

1:01:06

is Russia zapia is Russia dones is Russia lugans is Russia what is Russia is Russia that Russia has legitimate

1:01:13

National Security interests um that include Ukraine never being part of NATO

1:01:18

so there would have to be part of a treaty that Ukraine would never be part of NATO that there will be given the um

1:01:24

there will have to be demit ization that the the the Ukrainian Army will have to get rid of its NATO um infrastructure

1:01:33

and um and will have to be reconstituted in a manner that no longer poses a

1:01:38

threat to Russia uh and this would include certain demilitarized zones Odessa Etc who patrols those who polices

1:01:47

that that’s something that the negotiators would come up with um and and maybe there’s a role for the occe in

1:01:54

there the organization uh you for security in Central Europe um and then um you know you would have

1:02:03

to have constitutional changes in in in Ukraine to protect the interests of the Russian people there uh reversing for

1:02:10

instance the Ukrainian uh you know attacks on the Russian Orthodox Church

1:02:15

this would have to be reversed Russian language would have to be protected you know these these sort of things um and

1:02:22

probably some constitutional changes about um you know prohibiting you know

1:02:29

right-wing hate groups like anything that has to do with step on Banda but I think even that when Russia might go a

1:02:36

little bit soft on because the only way you’re ever going to fully Implement is to occupy all of Ukraine and I don’t

1:02:42

think Russia wants to occupy all of Ukraine but I do think that there’s space here for a negotiation it’s going

1:02:48

to require the Ukrainian government to um acknowledge defeat and it would be

1:02:54

you know it’ be a very difficult negotiation for them to have especially since they put forward so many unrealist

1:03:01

unrealistic expectations about you know getting the borders back to 1991 Etc but

1:03:06

realistically speaking this is um this is the best they have and I think coming out of Kazan you’re seeing the message

1:03:13

now being sent back to Ukraine um and its Western allies from a variety of

1:03:19

parties that there is a peace treaty there is a peace deal to be had but you’re going to have to make some compromises um this line position that

1:03:26

you’re taking against Russia is you know when this war ends everybody needs to know that Russia won this war and the

1:03:33

terms will reflect a Russian Victory um otherwise you know Russia’s not going to

1:03:39

uh you know slit its own wrist and ssky I think zilinsky will be a problem

1:03:45

solved by the Ukrainian people um and it will be

1:03:51

um I don’t think zilinsky is going to be the the person that would be signing this uh this peace

1:04:01

agreement Scott when you said right now when you said uh that Russia the New

1:04:07

World New World Order is that the same New World Order uh the west or is it

1:04:15

different no the the Kazan New World Order is a um consensus-driven multi-polar world

1:04:23

order of you know based upon principles that are enshrined in the United Nations Charter completely different concept

1:04:29

than uh you know the American rules-based International order um you

1:04:35

know and people can say it’s a pipe dream um I I’ll say it’s very difficult to to do something like that but again

1:04:41

the genius of what the Russians have done and they’ve set an example uh and they’ve created institutions that are

1:04:49

that are you know able to survive and move forward um they’ they’ve shown how

1:04:54

to do consensus building um in a in a multi-polar framework and um that’s a

1:05:00

huge accomplishment okay um my my next question real

1:05:06

quick I read your I read article on the Israeli intelligent leagues do you think

1:05:12

that was uh purposely leaked no if it was purposely leaked

1:05:18

they wouldn’t have released those documents um there’s ways that the US government purposefully leaks we uh you

1:05:25

know in in the old days we have our designated leaker and he goes out and he speaks to his source and he releases the

1:05:33

information he may show a document but he will never let you retain a document um the fact that these two documents

1:05:40

were put out there um tells me that somebody had access to them saw them was

1:05:45

concerned and released them without any Authority um those my understanding of

1:05:51

how things work today is that uh these documents contain unique identif ifers

1:05:56

um that will give people researching any unauthorized leak of information or that

1:06:02

document they’ll be able to tell limit say who had physical access to this

1:06:08

particular version of this document and I said that um they’re going to find this person and right now there’s an

1:06:14

investigation I believe that they will find the person that uh that leaked this um but this appears to have been an

1:06:21

unauthorized um leak of of classified information if the government the US Government wanted to really you know

1:06:28

leak it this isn’t how it’s done this is

1:06:33

amateurs okay and then I have to ask you a question that my wife wanted me to ask you um she wanted me to ask you if you

1:06:41

have any updates on uh the raid or on your

1:06:46

passports no my passport I’ve written letter after letter after letter asking for clarification of the passport

1:06:53

demanding its return uh requesting they tell me why they took it on what Authority they took it and U you

1:07:00

know I send them certified mail and and receipt and I get my little green card

1:07:05

back that says they received it and I get no answer from them um and the FBI

1:07:11

um hasn’t made any contact uh they continue to have my uh electronics and the uh the documents that they took um

1:07:19

and uh we’ve heard nothing um you know at some point in time um

1:07:27

we will reach out and find out what the hell’s going on but um you know right

1:07:32

now I I think you know I think they’re realizing that they were wrong whatever it is they thought

1:07:38

they were going to find on my computers wasn’t there and they’re sort of embarrassed

1:07:44

because you know they convene a grand jury they they have everything ready to strike and there’s nothing there they

1:07:52

and I told him that I said when you took it there’s nothing there you’ve you know you guys have been listening to me and you know monitoring

1:07:59

my phone calls and and and they admitted it they showed me the the folder with my with the emails that they’ve been

1:08:04

monitoring for the past years and I said okay so you got the emails that’s what you’re going to find here the only thing

1:08:10

I I think that they didn’t have was the the um Chats on um on telegram so when

1:08:17

people connected on telegram they knew that perhaps I was communicating with people on telegram but they didn’t know

1:08:22

what the content was and so they told a judge that uh by gaining access to this they would be able to prove

1:08:30

x no it it’s it’s an interesting legal question about what happens when you go

1:08:36

to a judge to establish probable cause and you you make a claim that we believe

1:08:42

he is doing X and that if we gain access to computer systems y they will show Z

1:08:49

which proves what we’re saying um and what happens when that whole thing falls apart

1:08:56

which is what happened they’ve got nothing and what do they do and you know

1:09:03

sometimes it’s better let them make that decision than to force the issue

1:09:12

so how much how how much time do you have for a couple questions

1:09:19

or I can try my voice is literally giving up I’ll listen to the questions

1:09:27

Janet you have another question I have one question but if you have another question go ahead Janet yeah well I have

1:09:33

several but anyway um okay so this is actually a series of five related mostly

1:09:40

short questions do you know how large the IDF

1:09:46

is how many act uh active duty and how many reservists

1:09:56

should I um I mean that these are publicly available numbers um and I don’t have them off the top of

1:10:04

my head they I would say that the IDF terms of active duty is several

1:10:10

hundred thousand strong with backed up by um you know 700,000 reservists um

1:10:16

that the the you know the total will be able to fill a military of act do and

1:10:21

reservice the maybe close to a million people and do do you know what the size

1:10:27

of the Israeli Air Force is again these are publicly available numbers um you

1:10:33

know we we know how many aircraft they have we know how many squadrons they have these aren’t Secrets um you know

1:10:39

but you know they it’s a very large air force is very capable Air Force okay Israel has mandatory military

1:10:47

service can you talk about what that is and what it looks like well they do I mean um the AG 18

1:10:55

you you’re supposed to join the Israeli military

1:11:02

um generally speaking you I mean when you when you join you take a test and

1:11:09

the test they they classify you into certain categories um and based upon

1:11:14

that you get assigned to whatever unit uh you’re going to be

1:11:20

doing and then that unit is responsible for training you and absorbing you and using you

1:11:26

um some for the most part you’ll you

1:11:32

do I think it’s 18 months of uh of service um and that’s it and then you

1:11:37

get released and you go on and and go to you know your your go back to civilian life but your reserv is for Life you’ll

1:11:43

have to continue to be go back and and get uh trained Etc um some people um if

1:11:52

you get selected for special force or something of that nature um you’ll sign

1:11:58

a different contract and you’ll be staying in longer because your training is going to be more detailed and then

1:12:03

you’ll have certain Service uh requirements after that training um but

1:12:09

for the most part um again Juan if if I if I went to you and I said

1:12:17

uh you know in 18 months I’ve trained the

1:12:22

perfect Marine you’d say yes or no and the answer is no um you know we we we

1:12:29

run through 13 weeks of basic training then we go to you know whatever our MOS training is but then we go out to the

1:12:35

fleet and we get you have to learn how to train with your units and um your

1:12:41

unit you know this is why we require a six-month uh train up period before we

1:12:46

go on deployment we we have to train the unit to work together as a unit um and

1:12:53

the thing that makes the unit work is that you have marines that have done multiple deployments and so there’s this experience base uh you have you know

1:13:00

your senior officers and Senior non-commissioned officers who have been in for a long time a lot of experience your ncos this isn’t the first rodeo um

1:13:08

when you look at the Israelis and look at the you know their casual lists

1:13:14

you’ve got captains that are 22 years old how does that happen how do you have

1:13:20

a 22y old Captain oh you have Majors that are 23 years old how

1:13:25

these are serious ranks these these imply certain you know command functions Etc the Israeli military is a um is a

1:13:34

military that for the most part

1:13:39

um isn’t as good as the world is led to believe um they have

1:13:47

very good technology uh and they’ve absorbed that technology but when it comes down to basic War fighting skills

1:13:56

um they’re they’re not as they’re they’re not as good as everybody would expect them to be simply because they

1:14:02

can’t be you can’t be good if you don’t train and you can’t train if you only

1:14:07

have 18 months or 24 months to train somebody up and then they go back to being in the reserves and get called

1:14:13

back up and then you know it doesn’t work that way so um they have some units that are very

1:14:20

good their pilots are very good um but you know some of their special forces are good um I can’t say very good

1:14:27

because you know igos one of their elite units went into went into hezb and

1:14:34

got went into Southern Lebanon and and and got whacked by Hezbollah um you know you’re not

1:14:40

supposed to get whacked if you’re a Special Forces Unit you’re supposed to have done a better job than that but the

1:14:45

the point is the Israelis aren’t as good as everybody leads is led to believe they’re uh and we and we see that um

1:14:52

with what’s happening in Gaza the um the the the breakdown of discipline um

1:14:59

is is because of the lack of experience and the lack of professionalism of this uh Israeli military uh these these these

1:15:06

guys are very unprofessional um they’ they’ve allowed sort of a street gang mentality to take

1:15:12

over uh that’s encouraged by higher higher ups again I can’t imagine what would

1:15:19

happen if I took um a company of Marines into

1:15:25

a foreign land and said uh no rules guys no

1:15:32

rules it would be murder it would be chaos it would be horrible you because

1:15:37

you’ve trained these marines to be Killers now if you tell them there’s no rules that that you’re to forget your

1:15:43

moral code you’re just to become a base killer the crimes we would commit would

1:15:49

mirror what Israel is doing in uh in Gaza today you can’t be a professional Soldier

1:15:55

if as a sniper you’re shooting children and women professionals would never do that you can’t be a professional Soldier

1:16:02

if you’re running over people living people in a bulldozer professionals would never do that this is not a

1:16:08

professional Army that the Israelis have it’s an army of thugs it’s an army of murderers there is no discipline there

1:16:16

is no moral value because you can’t have that uh when you have a conscript based

1:16:21

Army so wrapping this up um it’s been said that most Israeli citizens do not

1:16:29

know what is going what is being done in Gaza uh given the number of Israelis who

1:16:36

have completed their man mandatory military service and or are active or

1:16:42

reservists and have served in the West Bank or in securing Gaza how can this

1:16:49

ignorance be possible when it is the Israelis themselves who are doing the

1:16:54

Dirty Deeds they claim to be ignorant of you know what’s interesting is um

1:17:01

some of the best sources about what’s going on inside Gaza comes from the Israeli press um haret and uh and other

1:17:08

newspapers have been exposing the lies of the Israeli government um far more

1:17:14

effectively than the mainstream Legacy Media here in the United States um but I I bring this up to to make the point

1:17:21

that uh if you if you’re an Israel and you say well I don’t know what’s going on that means you’re you’re willfully

1:17:27

ignorant that you’ve made a decision not to ask questions not to Lear because the answer is right there you don’t have to

1:17:32

go to you know the gray Zone and read Max Blumenthal um peret and and other uh

1:17:39

you know Israeli media sources are telling you exactly what’s going on the crimes that are being committed um but

1:17:46

AR aren’t they doing the crimes well heret isn’t doing the crimes you’re reporting mean the Israelis are

1:17:53

doing the crimes of course and they know it what happens is

1:18:03

um Israel has stopped being a nation of I

1:18:09

mean the Israel that I knew back in the 1990s um 1994 to 1998 I spent a lot of

1:18:16

time in Israel and um you know the the old saying if you if

1:18:21

you uh go to dinner with with with 12 12 Israelis and you have a debate uh you’re

1:18:26

going to get 12 different points of view and and that’s that was correct everybody has a point of view uh the idea that the Israel with this U you

1:18:34

know homogeneous U entity where everybody thought the same was ludicrous uh I I could go and have dinner with u

1:18:41

hardened IDF uh professionals uh some of whom would be speaking about the need to

1:18:48

um you know kick kick out the Palestinians others saying we have to have peace with

1:18:54

Palestinian and then people in between um today you don’t have that kind of

1:19:00

diversity of thought in Israel um the vast majority of the Israelis are

1:19:08

sympathetic to the notion that um Gaza

1:19:14

needs to be pacified and uh and therefore if

1:19:21

Hamas has insinuated itself amongst the gazen population to the degree that it is apparently done so that this

1:19:27

pacification has to be violent in nature um you you you have an Israeli society

1:19:34

that doesn’t condemn Israelis putting out lawn chairs this Israeli Air Force bombs Gaza cheering with each bomb

1:19:41

detonation going kill them kill them kill them um you you’ve also seen a

1:19:46

change in the uh internal Dynamic of of Israel where the concept of Greater

1:19:52

Israel is is uh endorsed by a larger percentage of the population than ever

1:19:58

before so when they speak of from The River To The Sea you see all the Israelis getting up tight because they

1:20:03

say that’s a you know a Hamas um slogan well it’s been a lud slogan longer than

1:20:08

it’s been in Hamas slogan and the lud people uh say it um you know more often and more vociferously now

1:20:16

um Israel’s just fundamentally changed right now the the the nature of the population

1:20:22

so I I I don’t think there’s excuse for people saying that they don’t know what’s going on and if they don’t know

1:20:28

it’s because it’s willful ignorance and it’s willful ignorance because they want it to go along it’s uh I mean I lived in

1:20:35

Germany during the 1970s um and and what’s interesting about that is that you know for instance

1:20:41

we moved to Germany in 1977 that was 32 years after the end of

1:20:48

the second world war um I put that in perspect because we are

1:20:54

now gosh um 33 years after the Gulf War you know 1991 and I remember the golf

1:21:01

War like it was yesterday you know I was a participant in it Juan I think you were were you in Desert Storm

1:21:07

no but um but those who participated it wasn’t that long ago I mean Janet you

1:21:13

may have been involved in anti-war movement back then um okay it’s like yesterday you remember it it’s relevant

1:21:18

it’s even though we say 33 years no no it was there so when I talk about Germany in the 70s

1:21:25

there were a whole bunch of Germans who remembered Nazi Germany like it was yesterday because it was literally

1:21:32

yesterday um and I I I will tell you that um the the Germans knew what the

1:21:39

hell was going on in the 1940s they knew they all knew and most of them wanted it

1:21:46

to happen most of them were okay with it happening um and that’s how I feel you

1:21:53

know so when you talk about the Germans in World War II um the indifference of

1:21:59

society it’s a willful indifference because

1:22:04

you everybody knew what was going on everybody knew and today in Israel

1:22:11

everybody knows what’s going on everybody knows you can opt to be silent if you want to but you know what’s going

1:22:18

on and um if you if you want to claim ignorance it’s I I it’s willful

1:22:24

ignorance Because deep inside it means you know what’s going on and you want it

1:22:30

to go on so you’re not going to dig too deep so that’s that’s how I feel about

1:22:35

what’s going on in Israel right now it’s uh I condemn them wholeheartedly I I have hard I have a hard time coming up

1:22:42

with the notion of the good of the good Israeli just like based upon my experience in the 70s I have a hard time

1:22:48

coming at that time embracing the notion of the good German no

1:22:55

they may be good ger today because you have several you know Generations removed but in 1970s uh people that were in their 50s

1:23:02

were in their 20s people in the 60s were in their 30s they were adults during the rise and fall of the Third Reich and

1:23:08

they were participants in that process this was an all-encompassing um Endeavor just like

1:23:15

what’s happening in Israel today is an all-encompassing Endeavor all of Israel is behind what’s going on they support

1:23:21

it directly or indirectly Scott I just uh have one last question

1:23:27

and because you’ve been on for an hour and 20 minutes now I just have one last question do you do you believe that

1:23:34

there will be a major war before the

1:23:45

election you know there shouldn’t be um I don’t think you’re going to see

1:23:52

Ukraine blow up I think actually with Ukraine we’re looking at continued Russian military Victory on the front

1:24:00

that will now be followed up with the Russians continuing to say to because again my

1:24:07

understanding in brics is that everybody made the decision that there can be you

1:24:13

can’t have escalation in uh in Ukraine you have to bring this thing to an end and that Russia as a leader in bricks needs to take a leading role in this so

1:24:20

Russia will continue to win this war but I think Russia is open to the idea of an off-ramp as long as Russian interests

1:24:27

are are protected and if that’s the mindset then there’s no I don’t think we need to fear

1:24:34

um a major conflict I’m I am worried I continue to to be worried about the

1:24:43

um how Russian uh willingness to negotiate is misperceived in the west as

1:24:52

weakness and that um you know my big concern is that uh Putin by holding open

1:24:58

the door to negotiations will Empower people in the west who are looking at a a total

1:25:05

disaster unfolding in Ukraine right now with the collapse of the the Ukrainian military Etc and they’ll say well

1:25:12

Putin’s weak he’s just bluffing about threatening to use nuclear weapons let’s go ahead and give the Ukrainian ability

1:25:18

to launch these longrange Strike weapons to uh you know to to change the mix and if that happens you know we we

1:25:26

run the risk of nuclear war um in very short order so I continue to be nervous

1:25:32

about that but I I do believe that the Biden Administration um was given a wakeup call by the Russians on September 13th

1:25:39

and 14th um when Biden was thinking about signing off on kir starmer’s request to let the Ukraine use the Storm

1:25:46

Shadow and the Russians through a variety of channels let it be known that if that happens um it’ll be War and the

1:25:53

war will go nuclear and as anat anob the former Russian Ambassador the United States

1:25:58

told the Biden Administration the United States will be hit you know so boom um

1:26:05

and that’s why we didn’t sign the document but I I I I continue to have faith that the Biden Administration

1:26:11

isn’t going to a war in the Middle

1:26:17

East what you know K Harris is having a lot of problems right now a lot of problems witing people over um

1:26:25

if the one way you can guarantee she would lose this this election is if the

1:26:31

bid Administration got involved in a war that didn’t need to be fought um because you know Donald Trump

1:26:41

is saying you know I’m the the candidate of peace now we all know that’s garbage but perceptions beats reality uh I’m the

1:26:47

candidate of peace I never got us in a war back then well it’s not quite true but that’s okay Donald it’s your world

1:26:53

it’s your story you can tell anyway you want to and I won’t get you into a war here except you will but that’s okay we

1:27:00

know you’re a liar but the point is there’s people out there though who

1:27:05

might be on the fence and if we end up getting a war you know between Israel

1:27:10

and Iran prior to the election um you know what that’s going

1:27:15

to do to the American economy to the global economy to Energy prices it’s going to go through the roof it be

1:27:21

devastating for everybody and you know Jame car James carville’s old uh adage

1:27:26

from 1992 it’s the economy stupid you know applies today as as much as it did back then and when Americans start

1:27:33

paying $8 a gallon gas at the pump when they can’t put you know fuel in their uh

1:27:39

homes for the winter coming up when they can’t pay their bills when they can’t do this that and the other thing um all

1:27:45

Donald Trump’s gonna say see all they do is get you in Wars I’m the guy that’s going to get you

1:27:51

out of Wars I’m not if this if I were president this War would never have happened is what’s

1:27:56

and it’s the end and and the Biden Administration knows this so I think the Biden administration because they have a

1:28:02

vested interest in uh in kamalo winning at the election isn’t going to be

1:28:08

pushing for any conflicts um prior to the election so I think they’re and I

1:28:14

and I you know why what I understand the Israelis have come back and said that they’re not going to be bombing Iran anytime soon um largely because of that

1:28:22

leak that took place but um also I think because the B Administration has said

1:28:27

you know this will fundamentally change the relationship between the United States and Israel if you do something

1:28:32

like this and there’s increasingly number of uh American Jews telling um

1:28:38

the pro-israeli lobby and such that you know you’re creating a a scenario where

1:28:45

Americans when they look at what’s in the National interest are start you know they put things on a scale um continued

1:28:53

un Federate support for Israel is going to start being weighed as not in the

1:28:59

interest of the United States and if you’re pro-israel you don’t want that

1:29:04

situation to occur so um maybe if you want to preserve Israel’s favored status

1:29:11

you don’t do anything that um allows people to start debating that

1:29:17

status um and a war between Israel and Iran that manifested itself with

1:29:22

horrific economic consequences for the United States would lead us in that direction

1:29:28

so the leak was a good a good

1:29:33

thing I’m a Former Intelligence professional no leak is good no leak is

1:29:39

good we’re supposed to be a nation of laws okay classified information is classified for a reason billions of

1:29:46

taxpayer dollars went into creating the resources that were used to collect the information that were put in that

1:29:52

document um somebody released that and in doing so gave away a lot of capabilities there were that some

1:29:59

serious damage was done to the National Security of the United States by the release of that document that’s absolutely certain um now we can take

1:30:07

the the other argument which is good I I’m glad that damage was done

1:30:12

because America is going down the wrong path and half of me is in that camp

1:30:18

too but being where my background is I can never condone the unauthorized leak of

1:30:25

of classified information because I know how dangerous that can be there there are ways to get information out there

1:30:33

there are ways to do this that um wouldn’t result in the damage that was done but um yes the long the long story

1:30:41

if we throw away the rule of law in

1:30:47

that the leak was a good thing because I think it stopped the war and therefore

1:30:52

in the in the greater good it’s a good thing but you know I just have I have

1:30:57

trouble I’m just being honest being who I am and where I came from I have trouble saying yeah leaking classified

1:31:04

information is a good thing it’s not it’s classified for a reason now you know and and remember what what what

1:31:12

those reports showed isn’t America doing anything wrong it was America monitoring Israeli

1:31:19

capabilities um which is what intelligence is supposed to do uh but you know we gave away by by leaking that

1:31:26

you know I don’t want to get into too much here because I’m not allowed to but there just a lot of information in that

1:31:32

document that uh the public should not not just the

1:31:37

public but our adversar should not have been given those kind of insights uh it it’s

1:31:44

very damaging for the United States because what happens when we need to use those capabilities

1:31:49

for well for this this is a real threat the reason why the Israelis is that were

1:31:55

concerned about this the Israelis now will be able to do things to ensure that we never again have that kind of access

1:32:01

to their to their activities so in the future if we want to stop an Israeli attack we’ll be less

1:32:08

likely less able to do so because of this because of this

1:32:14

leak okay thank you Scott thank you Janet um if Scott if you could just uh

1:32:19

hold on for a couple minutes I just wanted to ask you something after I the

1:32:24

stream okay all right thanks again