GAZA: hiltzaileen eta esperantzaren artean (18) eta Europa

Transkripzioa:

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Europe the idea that kind of you know developing sort of economies like

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Georgia mova and Ukraine can join on the same benefits as the existing EU

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membership is is clearly uh not true you know um uh so you know stick with an FTA

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you know have really really good trading relationships build up those trading relationships try and increase or reduce

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the kind of imbalance in that trade you you create space to kind of build up your services and so on but you know the

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the actual wider benefits are not really kind of proven to me plus you know all the stuff around sanctions alignment and

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now the EU wants to open its own spy agency and all these kind of things while you say well actually you know is

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it what they want to sign up for I don’t

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know hello everybody this is Pascal from neutrality studies and today I’m talking again to Ian proud Ian was a British

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Diplomat from 1999 until 2023 he worked in Thailand Afghanistan and Russia and

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about the last posting we already did an episode um I will link that in the description and add also a link to his

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most recent book that he wrote called a misfit in Moscow how British diplomacy

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in Russia failed however today we want to discuss an article that he wrote

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about the Georgian elections because Ian was also is work working on uh economic

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analysis and he is saying that Georgia in his article the election was just as

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much about the economy and not just about uh being with Russia or being with

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the West as it is often portrayed so Ian thank you very much for coming online today it’s nice to see you again Pascal

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glad good to be back good to have you back so your argument in this article is quite nice because you add a lot of data

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to argue that look the the election what came out is 53 or% or so for the ruling

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Georgia dream party also had something to do with the economic development of Georgia could you please explain what

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you mean yes so I mean Georgia is first and foremost quite a small sort of country 3

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one million it’s not actually in Europe but let’s put that issue aside for now

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uh since 2012 really it’s been so growing incredibly well it seems to have

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had under the Georgia dream party I’m not sort of saying I’m for them or against that party but under their kind

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of leadership there’s been really impressive kind of economic growth strategy for the for the country that’s

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averaged you know sort of uh 6% economic growth a year which includes actually

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the pandemic you know contraction on lots of their kind of key measures like poverty reduction according to the World

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Bank this is not you according to Russian dat it’s according to the World Bank uh they’ve made significant

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progress they put unemployment down so massive amounts of work to to be done obviously to kind of level the gap

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between the the wealthy kind of urban centers like Bley in the very rural kind of areas of Georgia actually which voted

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for Georgia dream so predominantly where poverty is is is much higher but this is

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a country that is actually kind of economically in a good uh place going in

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a good you know Direction there are no signs actually the war on Ukraine we can

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p on that a bit later that it’s been kind of held you know held back so that

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then raises the question I suppose you know what are the benefits long term to Georgia from EU membership from an

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economic perspective now my view is that country should trade with every country

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like you know Georgia trading with the EU you know clearly makes sense if that works for Georgia and exporters if that

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works for EU exporters and so that’s a choice you know Georgia should trade with everybody

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you know that possibly can but in addition to trade you know what are the sort of wider benefits really to um to

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Georgia from EU membership when you look at the economic picture actually Georgia

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is actually lost out you know when you look at the data you know this is European data this is not you know

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Russian data or or anything else this is incredible kind of data data sources uh you

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know if if um the EU C kind of trading lot then the eu’s advantages Over

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Georgia have progressively increased since Georgia signed the deep and comprehensive Free Trade Agreement in

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2014 That Was Then implemented in you know 2016 so from a point where the EU

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exported three times as much to Georgia than it imported from Georgia now it’s it’s almost um uh s six times more in in

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some places you the EU exports to Georgia than imports from Georgia

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Germany exports 7.8 times more to Georgia than it Imports you know from Georgia so this big tradeing balance has

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built up where EU exporters uh selling more to Georgia you know uh but Georgian

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exporters aren’t actually selling anymore anymore to Europe which then raises the question well actually that’s

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that’s a negative benefit that’s a disadvantage to Georgia from sort of closer you know ties with EU um then you

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look at the investment picture you know investment hasn’t really kind of massively changed from the EU into

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Georgia since the dcfta was signed so it then raises the question well economically if Georgia isn’t benefiting

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arguably is losing out you know from its strengthened relationship with the EU what are the benefits from EU membership

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which then takes you into the whole kind of values agenda and that kind of stuff it becomes much more about economics

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which we thought EU membership for Georgia was about to something more ethereal like values and and that sort

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of stuff uh you know and other kind of trumping issues like well if if Georgia becomes a member of of the EU then you

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know have to sanctions against Russia and all these kind of very very difficult things uh so the economic case

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isn’t really there or hasn’t been proved yet you know that that Georgia is going to benefit from EU membership uh which

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you know I just pose the question well you know what with a kind of EU membership for Georgia you know what are

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the real benefits to Georgia a country which appears going in in a very good direction you know without that so where

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is this trade imbalance coming from um it does Georgia just not have enough

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local produce to actually sell or or local local in in industrial goods to sell to

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the EU or is the EU just not interested in what there is or are there actually

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road blocks that keep certain things that Georgia could export from going to

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from going to the you well the the EU is is you know quite

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protective you know trading body as as you know we all know and um since 2021

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it has imposed 58 trade investigating uh sort of procedures against Georgia these

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are procedures which actually kind of restrict um power-free benefits for certain Goods imported from Georgia

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limit access for certain Geor that’s coming in in from Georgia uh so you know

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the EU has since 21 at least actively been putting in blockages to prevent

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certain Georgian Goods being imported into into the EU now this has been cloaked under the umbrella of well you

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know this is to to prevent you know EU um Georgia acting as an intermediary s

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to to bypass sanctions against Russia but there’s actually very little evidence to prove that there’s a very good Swiss study that actually said well

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actually no that’s just you know there’s very little evidence to kind of underpin that of allegation this is purely kind

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of EU protective trade against Georgia so and of course Georgia doesn’t have the same you know protections against EU

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Goods so you know eight times you German sort of overmatch you know of you know

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it’s about six times more French Goods exported to Georgia than than imported from Georgia so there just in Western

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Europe the interesting thing for me was in Western European countries you know the Bigg e you know Germany France Italy

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Spain you know Poland um that that’s where the

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seems to be kind of biggest you know the really powerful s of Western European

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countries seem to have Advantage most um you know from the

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signing of the dcfa where uh countries close in in the EU closer to you know

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Georgia haven’t so much they have a more balanced I talk about the example of Bulgaria for example which I think is

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perhaps the only EU country where it Imports more from Georgia than it exports to Georgia and I argue that’s

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partly about geography because you know trade is largely about geography people tend to trade with people that are you

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closer to them in general terms it’s easier it costs less and you see that with Bulgaria which actually has a has a

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trade deficit with Georgia but Western European countries powerful Western European countries you

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know the ones where all the kind of EU institutions are you know Belgium as well have benefited massively from this

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and have been the ones involved in in putting in place restrictive measures against Georgian Goods at the same time

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yeah and I mean in a sense this is also a very this is a very normal thing to happen we’ve seen that with Ukraine too

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right despite despite the entire we will support Ukraine whatever it takes and

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and whatever you need will’ll give it to you if Ukraine says we would like to export our grain without any tariffs and

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barriers to the EU then the EU say no my friend we will have high

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barriers we will protect our Market so I mean friendship ends very quickly once

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it comes to this trading issue now what are do you know what are the the the

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Georgian sectors that that the EU is actually very protective against like

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try wouldn’t want to immediately trade as fre as it could it’s a lot um it’s

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it’s things like Tim plate it’s it’s table wear you know plates and and it’s

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it’s a very very detailed list I encourage you to look at it there’s no kind of one board sector it tends to be

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but is you know processed Goods you know up to a certain up to a certain point

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but it’s quite a detailed list in in um agriculture kind of less so

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interestingly but that that’s another area where you know EU membership will be problematic for Georgia as indeed as

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you say Ukraine is found because of its neighbors Poland Poland in particular resistance to

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cheap sort of um Ukrainian agricultural products so actually if you look at georan exports generally that there’s

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quite a mixed basket of things they do it’s all kind of middle range kind ofly

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high value s of process products and and stuff in addition to the exports of wine and the exports of of precious metals

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and the exports of of agricultural goods and it tends to be that kind of Millen where there are lots of kind of measures

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because they think they’ve come from China or they think theyve come from Russia and that kind of course stuff but

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what that does of course is it generally has a dampening effect you know on exporting because exporters see that

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actually it’s all the bureaucracy that you have to go through to get anything exported to the EU makes a lot of exporters think well

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actually of course maybe it’s just too difficult we won’t even

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try now how how then where’s the 6%

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growth figure coming from so is trade with Russia and with with other partners

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actually currently more beneficial for Georgia

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um the growth is is has largely been ex

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investment Leed in Georgia actually and that’s not necessarily for direct investment lead it’s domestic investment

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lead you know investment very much driven by uh government policies and um

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Georgia is also a country with kind of high uh you know private consumption you know people like to kind of earn the

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money spend their money you know it’s like the opposite of China right where where people like to earn the money and

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like save the money well you know so Georgia in some aspects like Russia people you know tend to be have a higher

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propensity to spend their money so so spending you know private consumption and domestic investment are the two kind

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of key drivers both in Georgia um they get good service ex exports as well

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which helps on the trade kind of balance because Georgia is a fabulously beautiful sort of country you know if

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you visit it they get you know good tourism industry there uh you know so that generates kind

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of income as well but it’s largely kind of investment and pip consumption Dr growth in Georgia it’s it’s not really

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because of external factors necessarily I mean Georgia has a trade deficit even

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despite its advantages and services it can consistently runs a kind of in current account deficit you know for

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example it it does get foreign investment not to mbly high levels of

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foreign investment um so yeah it’s largely kind of domestic factors which

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have driven its growth trajectory so do you interpret the um the the victory of

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um Georgian Dream then also basically as a as a part of the Georgian population

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saying look we should continue this economic route of in with everyone

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without trying to integrate completely in one or the other block um because the

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EU of course has great benefits but those come at at a cost and you’re from

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a country you’re from a country that officially said we don’t want to have that cost anymore and left and I’m from

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a country that that’s that said we don’t want the cost we never joined right um so certain countries just decide that

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the EU itself despite being a very important partner is just not the thing to integrate into for the best way

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forward yeah exactly um you know I think for average uh you know regular of

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Georgian people outside of convey Metropolitan Urban uh centers you know

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that they kind of do question what it’s all all about and they see a country that’s actually kind of gemly going in a

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positive direction it still has a lot of kind of work to do um and I don’t think

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you know the argument has necessarily be made out anyway in Du to the economic s of benefits of membership I mean if you

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see all of the press Western press reporting pretty much all of the western you know reporting about the election

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it’s all in very high levels of generality just like it was in Ukraine you know but oh this is our EU in know

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European choice and you know we’re going to benefit so much but nobody’s really explaining what these benefits you know

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will be they’re just kind of crafting it in a very kind high level visionary way that actually you know will’ll be so

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much better off but but people have yet to kind of really be convinced of that I think that you know they see the country

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maybe not you know maybe George dream isn’t the best in the world but I mean against a very fragmented opposition

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it’s you know the better alternative available and the country is going of going in the right direction so we’ll

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stick with that and when we talk about this this economic setup as well then

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what what do you think is the comparative advantage of of Georgia also looking at its at its geographical

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position um whom it can trade with because like as you said like Georgia

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like geographically geographically is just outside what is considered the European continent although I must say I

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find this weird like this is Eurasia is the only continent that we that we that we split apart based on some very

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artificial kind of boundary um anyhow like leaving that one

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side agree I agree but but it is but it is to the east of turkey which the EU is

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very clear you know it seems to me that it will probably never join so there’s also that geography issue to kind deal

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with as well but yes no you might so but but it has a neighborhood right it has

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it’s part of the Southern caucuses it it can it can trade with the northern caucuses which would then be like of

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course which are Russia um Iran is a is a very close by neighbor um what are the

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what are the opportunities actually um for Georgia to to trade with its

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neighbors well actually Georgia you know has it arguably its best trading relationship with Armenia and

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aeran with both of whom it has I believe a trading Surplus it kind of exports

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more to those countries than it imports from those countries it actually has a disadvantageous relationship with turkey

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which massively overmatched it in terms of Turkish exports against kind of Georgian Imports but certainly with uh

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Southern caucus is a country very advantageous kind of trading relationship um there and with Russia

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you know it’s it has a deficit with Russia but it also has significant exports to Russia the energy

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relationship is obviously a very important relationship there you know too um so yeah I mean it’s it within its

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neighborhood it sort of has kind of fair friends um arguably more so than with

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the EU if you look at if you look at Eurasia Eurasian countries you know former Soviet countries including Russia

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India China you know and actually turkey if you consider turkey IR asan uh yeah

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country if you compare the kind of disadvantage with EU trade I think it’s only um you know two times um more you

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know EUR Asian countries export two times more to Georgia than the import from Georgia which is kind of less than

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half of the disadvantage of of actually trading with the EU so then again you see geography really kind of comes into

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play there that you know Georgia can have more advantageous kind of trade with the EUR Asian countries compared to

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with the European Union uh countries and you were uh correct me if I’m wrong you

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were in when you were in Moscow you were the trade counselor right economic economic economic counselor so your job

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was literally to be the diplomat responsible for well trade negotiations

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right with with counterparts um like if you were doing the same job for Georgia

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like in in partner States what would you recommend to Chan

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uh economic counil counselors to how to approach these trade imbalances on a

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diplomatic level what do you do in order to kind of reduce trade

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imbalance uh well I mean there are some that you just can’t um you know reduce of course like the energy dependence is

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a big S cause of of one of the imbalances there of course but but folks

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on it you know advantages uh some certain Metals agriculture kind of wine

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but but also actually and this is something that that Georgia is already doing uh looking to develop its uh

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looking to move its economy up the value chain because actually much of what Georgia exports um at the moment is is

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fairly low on the value train um actually look kind of move up to kind of high value added

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Production Services and that sort of thing Georgia seems to have an advantage advantage in services

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you know when you have a sort talented well educated you know population certainly in the urban centers then

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service sector development is is a key area of growth because you know Georgia

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will struggle to have advantages in terms of the trading Goods but in terms

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of the trading Services I think that that’s an area for for a group I think that’s already actually in the Georgian

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government strategy that they recognize the Need You canote Higher value adding

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you know factors of production within Society to have better you know sort of more job opportunities for Young

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University educated people young person unemployment in Georgia is very high still and that you know if they can

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address that then that will automatically kind of Drive growth in the service sector which will then help

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you know move Georgia into kind of current account cace terity rather than consistent deficit Terr that it’s in at

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the moment Sor there all techie but but but actually despite all of this you know Georgia manag you know because any

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country thatly runs a deficit has a you know can end up with quite a big debt problem you know because when you import

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more than you export you you basically create sort of a big gap in terms of your foreign exchange reserves you need

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Capital to kind of pop that up but actually you know Georgia is able to kind of maintain fairly healthy levels

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of debt through again it’s good some macroeconomic e economic management yeah

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and of course the the problem the problem is then that you you need to

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import stuff from your partners in their currency which means you get need to get your hands on their currency and that’s

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where the imbalance thing comes from but is how would you manage this because there are there are several ways of

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dealing with this issue as well I mean especially Global South countries now are more open to the idea of also doing

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just currency swaps right in order to kind of get your domestic currency back

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uh and and and and you know use more of domestic currency in order to pay for foreign Goods is that a way forward in

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this more multi-polar world now that Georgia can also look at countries like

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China and Russia and say like guys we want to continue the trade and if we have a deficit we have a deficit but but

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we need to do some currency swaps in order to make this possible yeah and actually currency

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swaps could actually smooth the trading process too right you know reduce the cost of that trade so yeah Turkish Le

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Russian rubal Chinese Yuan you know all these kind of currencies could be useful

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uh you know and certainly sort of um uh Mr derhams as well been rising up the

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kind of list of good trading Indian rupes so yeah I mean I think this is worth you know looking at I think that’s

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going to very much create advantages at the margins of trade I mean the

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potential is is by trading more ultimately but these these things canally you know help when you can of

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reduce Reliance on Euro trading and dollar trading of course that that can be an

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advantage and you know Georgia has also been criticized for actually building a

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port project with China um although the the the kind of lawsuits that came out

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of that found that there’s no there was no improper uh uh approach by by the

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government um this kind of new relationship also with trading partners

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that are not traditional Georgian trading partners like China and and also engaging in Services is that something

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that you would would encourage or are you more of the opinion that no stay within the region and try to

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develop more with the immediate neighbors no my view is countries should um trade

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with any countries that it makes sense for them to trade with investment is different because you geography is a

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less kind of critical factor in investment right uh you know if investment is is capital flows capital

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is kind of Cheaper to move around the continent than Goods so it’s and if you

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look at China you know particular China is a growing investment partner you know with Georgia for the reasons he set out

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Port projects Fon Road you know projects and that and that sort of thing it’s less significant at the moment so

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trading partner with with Georgia but so growing so yeah I mean I think you trade with everybody build investment

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Partnerships I mean the growth area at the moment is in the global South in the bricks world with what’s happened on the

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back of the you know this Evolution really we’ve seen in the Kazan Summit recently but this has been it’s a

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growing phenomenon that’s really taken off I think in the past of three years is greatest greater can a collective

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identity as Brits as an inclusive you know form for engagement but also

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economic cooperation so you know putting all of your eggs in in the EU basket I

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mean you know feels to me too limiting because if you do that then you know you you basically subordinate your trade

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policy to you know the EU you can’t have these kind of more open um uh you know

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relationships with blocks like you know Brits you know because EU would prevent you from from doing that uh so yeah as

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bricks you know is now counts or soon will account for more than half of the world’s population then you know that

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has to be a more lucrative long-term strategic you know choice for for Georgia to look at and two smaller

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countries like Georgia actually have some leverage in negotiating um like better trade at

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better trade balance I had a discussion just last week with malta’s one of malta’s former foreign ministers and he

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told me the story how he went to Japan in the 1980s and told the Japanese look we are tiny but you have to buy more

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from us the trade in balance is too huge we we demand that you buy more and he

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got them in the end to buy services from Malta uh um in the in like Port

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infrastructure if I remember correctly but he went there as a diplomat and said guys you have to buy is this something

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that’s still done these days that that you know in that that on a diplomatic

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level that you just go to the other partner and say like do something buy more from us and convince them to do

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so yeah I mean trade diplomacy is a key part of of dioma activity right you’re

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always out there encouraging s of more trade deals more favorable trade deals so that’s key but you know Georgia is is

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a country of three million people against the EU block of what 500 million

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you know people there’s a massive power IM balance there and yes of course they can and they should you know try to do

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that I’d say with Germany and France in particular where the biggest tradeing balances you know kind of lie but but at

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recognizing that actually they have limited power to you to deliver big deals and anyway that the big ticket

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decisions that are taken in Brussels white there’s always going to be horse trading you know the the ultimate

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decision is whether the effort that Georgia need to put into that will actually you know be worth any possible

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benefit they get out of it so far since the dcft he was signed 10 years ago the

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direction has been downwards not upwards negotiations must have been

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happening right and yet this imbalance has grown wouldn’t that actually be a reason for like Georgia’s foreign

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minister to go to the to Brussels and say like okay guys look we have this agreement and it hasn’t been producing

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that much for give us give us a better deal um like

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kind of trade diplomacy of course but my point is surely they must have been doing that

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already probably I don’t know but yeah no of course but I mean you know let’s see you

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know if they try and do that but I mean you know joining the EU long term yeah why not but I mean I think actually in

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the short term you know given that’s going to be at least a decade 15 years down the track in the short term there’s

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so much else happening in the world in a more vibrant kind of way around what’s happening in the global South that

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Georgia should also be looking at opportunities there as well it would be sort of crazy not to do that of course

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but I mean also the experience of your country of Great Britain and others um I mean there are ways also for Switzerland

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to have an economic uh setup with the European Union that does not that does not include you joining it um the the

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question is one of of the modalities right um let’s say also like you know the

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European Union has a free trade agreement with Canada and I think Canada is quite happy with with with that one

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and free trade agreements also allow for a lot of economic integration without

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joining a union um what is in your from your perspective the ultimate the the

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the kind of most beneficial setup for a non-eu member to to um to engage the

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European Union well I would say for you know

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countries like Georgia probably longer term the most beneficial setup is to kind of stick with some FDA Arrangement

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and not to go beyond that because beyond that you know the benefits are kind of if if they’re described as benefits you

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know the what’s in the membership package is really more political than economic anyway you know if you’ve got a

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free trade agreement and you get membership okay you can get structural funds from the EU if you do that um you

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you know you’re not going to join on the same terms as existing members of the EU as we’ve seen with Ukraine very visibly

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this idea of a two trck you know Europe the idea that kind of um you know fairly

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kind of um um you know developing sort of economies like Georgia mova and

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Ukraine can join on the same benefits as the existing EU membership is is clearly

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uh not true you know um so you know stick with an FDA yeah you know have really really good trading relationships

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build up those trading relationships try and increase or reduce the kind of imbalance in that trade you create space

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to kind of build up your services and so on but you know the the actual wider benefits are not really kind of proven

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to me plus you know all this stuff on sanctions alignment and now the EU wants

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to open its own spy agency and all these kind of things while you say well actually you know is it what they want

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to sign up for I don’t know um you also look a bit at um how

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the how the new members of the EU especially the ones that that join last

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um kind of developed economically can we also like infer from their

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experiences um I mean Croatia I think is is is actually doing very well in in in

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the European Union although I have no I have no have no numbers in my mind but we have other members that are

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struggling like um Romania and Bulgaria are are not on the same economic level

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as the as the rest and if you look at at the suffering that at the way that

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Greece like suffered heavily actually from being uh um by the way it it was

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treated back in 2010 um there are there are legitimate legitimate concerns also for for EU

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member states of how the center interacts with the periphery yeah exactly and a lot of it

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is about imbalance in the kind of structure of the economies right I mean you got countries

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like Germany and France these are very highly advanced in economies the problem with Greece was that Greece wasn’t a

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very Advanced economy and trying to kind of create s of fiscal alignment monetary

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policy alignment and that sort of stuff uh between Greece and countries like

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Germany very obviously was going to fail you know because the costs on Greece

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have actually kind of bringing itself up to the same kind of robust macroeconomic

32:02

uh you know um position as Germany was going to be too high and that and that’s

32:08

what it felt and you know you look at Romania and Bulgaria economically that

32:14

they are nowhere near the level of Economic Development as Germany and and France and it’s not really in the

32:20

interest of Germany and France to to enable them to to become like that so they they kind of sit at the periphery

32:25

as you say um and you know thank God they haven’t decided to uh sort of go much further in

32:33

terms of sort of monetary you integration you know than they have but it’s just it’s just harder to S

32:39

integrate when you are structurally different you know what if you drive from Poland as I have you know to C you

32:47

know Poland has done remarkably well out of EU integration Poland looks like a sort of quite an advanced economy now

32:54

and it is uh you know into Berlin it all looks like the same you know it’s like

33:00

economically in terms of infrastructure in terms of investment flow service development you know everything you know

33:07

each country has their has their kind of particular advantages but it kind of looks and feels the same and you can see

33:14

why Poland has done well because it’s done the investment it’s you know put itself up if you go to Romania it

33:20

doesn’t look the same and there’s like a very visual thing right that actually sort of it’s hard when you’re econom

33:28

less prosperous to kind of join the EU because the other members are just

33:33

economically so much more advanced at the you are and the and the cost to you to get to where they are frankly just

33:39

high and in some cases can break you yeah and that’s why it makes more sense

33:44

for for such economies to play on their strength which is partially to have

33:49

lower uh lower uh uh costs for producing stuff and that’s then where it is so

33:56

unfair that the first thing the EU does is say like okay no we are not importing your cheap grain we’re not import we not

34:01

we’re not accessing your cheap Services because that would rival our uh our local Pro producers but that’s exactly

34:08

where your competitive Advantage is that you can play on and you can export if

34:13

you could but then that’s not what the big ones will allow but but it and of course it’s also the structure of EU

34:21

subsidies as well right yeah I did a sort of a piece on Ukraine recently on

34:27

the back of um zori’s kind of pranked phone call uh you know a month or so ago

34:33

and um you know take Ukraine and actually Georgia is pretty much in the same boat but in a much kind of you know

34:40

smaller way um the EU couldn’t afford you know to give Ukraine the level of

34:45

agricultural subsidies it gives you know other IND members of the EU I me

34:51

Ukrainian agriculture is just too good uh you know in terms of size and in

34:57

terms of output uh and you if if the EU were to S of give Ukraine the same level

35:05

you know in terms of size of population in terms of agricultural kind of production and that sort of subses as

35:11

existing members it would take billions of subsidies off of existing members

35:16

yeah and existing members that say well actually no thanks especially

35:23

Poland and also for example you know and this this applies equally to kind of

35:29

Georgia as it does as it does to you know Ukraine you know Poland gets more

35:35

structural funds from the EU than any other country within the EU because it

35:40

has such a big population that it gets you know huge you know more structural funds um than

35:48

any other country if Ukraine joined um suddenly Poland would have to be putting

35:55

money into structural funds they would have to be paying for Less developed countries like Ukraine they’d no longer

36:01

be receiving an additional 6 billion EUR a year they’d be paying in billions of

36:07

Euros so the same thing applies to you know when you when you bring in of less economically developed countries the EU

36:13

has to pay you if they come in on the same standards as everybody else the EU has to pay the rich EU countries have to

36:20

pay to kind of bring them up to a better level and that is increasingly sustain unsustainable

36:26

because if if all the countries that wanted to join the EU were advanced economies it wouldn’t be a problem right

36:33

you know if Norway decided to join the EU it wouldn’t be a problem because

36:38

Norway is an advanced economy I know it’s not going to happen but if Switzerland you know I know Switzerland

36:44

against the EU but if Switzerland wanted to join the EU this problem would advise

36:49

you know you would have to worry about agricultural subsidies or you know structural funds into Switzerland

36:56

because Switzerland already has a lot of money if it’s Ukraine and Georgia they don’t have a lot of money and you got to

37:02

pay you know you got to subsidize them and pay structural funds and it just breaks the system and that that is

37:08

something that you just cannot overcome and and nobody talks about this but you know it’s it’s one of the reasons why

37:15

some people talk about a twin track approach and of course that’s what Georgia is being offered in 10 or 15 or

37:20

20 years down the track being a second class member of the club yeah which is

37:26

which is exactly why some people say like it would actually be it would be self-destructive for the EU to admit uh

37:33

Ukraine in a on a fast track uh just in order to to prove a point to Russia and

37:40

kind of you know not going to do it self it will be self-destructive because you would you would you would create all of

37:48

these imbalances within the econom the the local EU economy that would probably

37:53

create so much friction that you might have others who would just say like no I’m out um I’m not going to do I mean

38:00

the UK was already left because it largely said we are not getting enough

38:06

out of this at least good part of the population felt that you that the UK is at the shorter end of a of an imbalanced

38:13

stick well we we were actually putting in and and in indeed had always been net

38:18

contributors to the EU budget we’ve always been the countries that have been subsidized in countri like Poland and

38:24

that’s fine I mean I’m all in favor of that don’t you don’t get me but it is more on the kind of regulatory side

38:30

where actually I think the issue is more that actually people in Brussels are deciding our rules in the UK and I think

38:36

it’s really that that was a problem for the UK more necessarily than the economic cost because we’ve lost out in

38:42

terms of agricultural subsidies so you know some might argue but I think it’s more on the regulatory side I think that’s part of the you know that it

38:49

moves it beyond the economics again actually what is the EU about it’s becoming in terms of a regulatory

38:56

perspective you know sort of uh almost like a superstate you know and I don’t

39:01

really think that has the intention you know when people like Monet sort of set up the EU is it really started as an

39:08

economic kind of block to promote Freer trade and through that promote better NAB relations you know and over longterm

39:16

peace on the European continent right but I think the the regulatory side is a thing that ultimately will unpick it

39:22

with the Wonder lion very much centralized or wanting the EU institutions to have more power you know

39:28

and these ridiculous bust up she’s having with Hungary at the moment where

39:34

people are actively ostracizing hungry because allb has a different view on foreign policy than than some of the

39:39

other other members this is deeply unhelpful uh you know for the EU longer term and you know these kind of fishes

39:47

where sort of increasingly nationalist kind of governments come into contact within uh conflict with the EU

39:53

institutions pose a real kind of strategic threat to the EU over the longer term if it’s just about the trade then you

40:00

know fine but it’s becoming so much more than about trade yeah and this is I

40:06

think this is where smaller countries also like Georgia and so on need to need

40:11

to really think about how to also negotiate their way with the EU um while

40:16

using the advantages of this new multi-polar system and also say like okay we can we can buy or sell this to

40:22

you or we can buy and sell to China what are what are you offering um I mean this

40:27

is one of the advantages of being outside the club right you have more you have more lateral freedom of action yeah

40:34

I mean look at you know countries like Singapore I mean they trade with everybody uh and they don’t need to be I

40:42

mean obviously the part of ban you know of course uh but this is one of the most kind of vibrant Innovative kind of

40:48

prosperous you know uh countries on Earth the United Arab Emir exactly the

40:53

same you fantastically kind of dynamic place is you know why do you have to kind of you know feel that you can only

41:01

sort of be legitimate if you join some Club of people who will never see you as

41:07

an equal true um true the the and there are

41:13

there are opportunities and as you correctly said Georg already proved that it is actually prospering outside of the

41:19

union and why not just continue that route which seems what what the decision it’s doing incredibly well I mean it’s

41:25

doing incredibly well a lot of you know stuff needs to be done still youth

41:31

unemployment is way too high um but the trajectory is good they recognize the

41:36

need to kind of really build up their service sector improve kind of opportunities for sort of uh people

41:43

coming at tertiary education uh to get higher value adding jobs I mean there all of these and and these kind of

41:49

improvements rightly been held back by the Ukraine war where suddenly there’s this massive

41:56

influx of you know hundreds of thousands of people from Russia Ukraine and BOS fleeing the war who of um digital Nomads

42:04

who were kind of crowding out sort of U you know young person employment you in

42:10

Georgia soon actually ionically the war was has actually moved a massive setback

42:16

for you know for Georgia uh a war that of course the European Union has been

42:21

bankr yeah absolutely true and what the most important thing is to avoid a war yourself right mean you will prosper

42:28

eventually as long as you don’t get your stuff like blown up just have just have

42:34

good relations with everybody and why should it be you know let’s choose Europe and not Russia you know why not

42:40

Europe and Russia and you know Iran and as China and Iran and turkey too China

42:46

and turkey you know why not I mean what why do you have to choose totally

42:51

agree totally agreed um we we are kind of reaching the time that we said we would we would use but this is a this is

42:58

a very useful talk again to also focus a little bit away from just the ideological stuff and and and and talk

43:05

economics yeah let’s park the ideology and just focus on just buildings of multi-polar you of relationships uh

43:12

because that’s the feature of the world you know you know picking and choosing focusing on values you know looking you

43:20

aligning too closely with political drives like sanctions and that sort of stuff you know for tiny country 3.1 million people like

43:28

Georgia that just poses risks frankly uh you know I mean there you go I mean is

43:36

is is is the EU going to come to you Georgia’s Aid if if War breaks out I

43:42

mean it hasn’t come to Ukraine’s Aid apart from sending money but there you go weapons weapons they sent them the

43:49

what they need in order to run toward the Russian bullets um which is to me the opposite

43:54

of helping but fine um Ian where can people find you if they want to read more from you you publish on responsible

44:00

statecraft where else yeah uh uh strategic culture I’ve got PR diploma.com I’m on X as proud Diplomat

44:10

uh so look me out in those places and buy my book because it’s really fascinating about sort of you know the

44:15

the mistakes UK made in its relationship with Russia that ultimately led to this devastating World which you know we

44:21

should be trying our best to end as soon as possible a misfit in Moscow how British diplomacy in Russia failed

44:27

everybody I’ll recommend that highly um Ian proud thank you very much for your time today thanks Pascal all the best

44:34

nice to see you again